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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-01T23:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33659/-1
CME Note: Developing CME with bulk seen predominantly to the southeast in early frames with a very faint, oval-shaped/asymmetric halo shock portion, associated with an X7.1-class flare and associated eruption from AR3842 (S17E18). Coronal signatures include an EUV wave and large-scale dimming in SDO 171/193 with magnetic field line movement off the southern and southeast limbs and dimming of footpoints bridging the Active Region 3842 (S17E18) in GOES 284. [PRELIMINARY] closed out a non-arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-04T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Estimated speed using 60-70% of radio emission speed ~800 km/s.
Estimated half angle 40
Sunspot region details used as source of CME ~ S16 E23 

Associated flare X7.1 01/2220 UTC

Low confidence as based on combination of DRAG model and observations. Analysis using imagery underway but also low confidence given limited frames.

Lead Time: 55.95 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-10-02T15:03Z

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